always a treat to see a well thought out future timeline. your curve is a little more optimistic than mine but we're pretty close. shit accelerates significantly when you add things like topsoil erosion and sars2 immunological collapse into the mix.
Throw in a nuclear exchange and it could be all over by Tuesday! Seriously though, even though my forecast goes out for decades I think it will start to feel like the apocalypse much sooner.
The societal changes are going to be far worse. People are not going to be able t o adapt rapidly enough to survive. Famine It's going to strike far sooner from changing climate then your scenario. In Hawaii which is an isolated environment the major crops of coffee, avocados, and macadamia are already being attacked by invasive species and crop failures from changing climate.
What better way of controlling a population then with starvation? Most small farms rely on immigrants for harvesting and maintaining. When Trump deports them he will effectively put them out of business allowing large Agra to buy them up. Already most small food companies have been absorbed Into the larger ones. Most food is being processed as well In a few facilities In the US.
The chaos that ensues from mass migration will be another issue altogether. Currently arable farmland will no longer be productive and need to be moved and reestablished and Will be time consuming. A sea level rise of even a few feet Will render shipping ports inoperable.
Slightly off topic what if climate change Isn't man made but the result of a solar cycle? Something completely out of our control?
I ask this because years ago I remember NASA reporting all the planets in the solar system warming. Anyone else remember this?
The actual timeline Is going to be impossible to predict But it's going to be soon.
Thanks, Sarah, for a fine effort at reading the tea leaves of societal collapse/extinction of much of the human species, but my study of the climate collapse data on C3S suggests a much faster timeline. You may wish to peruse their June 5, 2024 article "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action". They use a 1991-2020 baseline, which can be seen on their "Climate Pulse" page. Last Friday, the global surface air temp anomaly was 0.73 degC above that baseline and sea surface temp anomaly was 0.44 degC above the baseline, so 0.18 degC ave annual increase since 2020 surface air temp anomaly and 0.11 degC annual sea temp anomaly since 2020. If these rates continue, we may see 2 degC by 2027 for surface air temp and 0.33 degC for surface sea temp anomalies, which are on a trend line, by extrapolation, to 6 degC global surfaced air temp. anomaly by 2047, way ahead of your conservative numbers. Thus, these C3S numbers suggest a much more rapid societal collapse, climate collapse, etc. On that cheery note, have a blessed day and thanks, again, for all you do. BTW, my best wishes for the Terminator! ( :))
I am 70, and a pessimist ever since I read The Limits to Growth in the 1970s.
As recently as about 2010 though, I expected politics to disintegrate AFTER the environment began collapsing.
But the Nov 5, 2024 US elections ("11-5") proves I had that backwards.
The world entered a new political dark age that day, meaning the response of most humans to climate collapse impacts will be with willful ignorance, cruelty, and hate. I still had at least SOME hope until 11-5 that the majority of humans might respond with intelligence and love.
Great work Sarah. I fear you have been way too conservative in the global temp ranges. 2024 will see the first year 1.5 deg C above the 1750-90 baseline for every month of the year. Don't forget, that was the original baseline the 2 degrees threshold was set at decades ago. The average global temp then was 13.54 deg C. It is now 15.29 degC and has been around that mark or higher since last year. The sudden acceleration of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere is showing more irreversible tipping points have been crossed. The Arctic is now a source, not a sink. We don't have decades. We probably have one.
At least we can console ourselves that in this last decade available to us to do anything about this, exactly the wrong people and parties are in control throughout!
always a treat to see a well thought out future timeline. your curve is a little more optimistic than mine but we're pretty close. shit accelerates significantly when you add things like topsoil erosion and sars2 immunological collapse into the mix.
Throw in a nuclear exchange and it could be all over by Tuesday! Seriously though, even though my forecast goes out for decades I think it will start to feel like the apocalypse much sooner.
I think you got the climate scenario spot on.
The societal changes are going to be far worse. People are not going to be able t o adapt rapidly enough to survive. Famine It's going to strike far sooner from changing climate then your scenario. In Hawaii which is an isolated environment the major crops of coffee, avocados, and macadamia are already being attacked by invasive species and crop failures from changing climate.
What better way of controlling a population then with starvation? Most small farms rely on immigrants for harvesting and maintaining. When Trump deports them he will effectively put them out of business allowing large Agra to buy them up. Already most small food companies have been absorbed Into the larger ones. Most food is being processed as well In a few facilities In the US.
The chaos that ensues from mass migration will be another issue altogether. Currently arable farmland will no longer be productive and need to be moved and reestablished and Will be time consuming. A sea level rise of even a few feet Will render shipping ports inoperable.
Slightly off topic what if climate change Isn't man made but the result of a solar cycle? Something completely out of our control?
I ask this because years ago I remember NASA reporting all the planets in the solar system warming. Anyone else remember this?
The actual timeline Is going to be impossible to predict But it's going to be soon.
Thanks, Sarah, for a fine effort at reading the tea leaves of societal collapse/extinction of much of the human species, but my study of the climate collapse data on C3S suggests a much faster timeline. You may wish to peruse their June 5, 2024 article "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action". They use a 1991-2020 baseline, which can be seen on their "Climate Pulse" page. Last Friday, the global surface air temp anomaly was 0.73 degC above that baseline and sea surface temp anomaly was 0.44 degC above the baseline, so 0.18 degC ave annual increase since 2020 surface air temp anomaly and 0.11 degC annual sea temp anomaly since 2020. If these rates continue, we may see 2 degC by 2027 for surface air temp and 0.33 degC for surface sea temp anomalies, which are on a trend line, by extrapolation, to 6 degC global surfaced air temp. anomaly by 2047, way ahead of your conservative numbers. Thus, these C3S numbers suggest a much more rapid societal collapse, climate collapse, etc. On that cheery note, have a blessed day and thanks, again, for all you do. BTW, my best wishes for the Terminator! ( :))
I am 70, and a pessimist ever since I read The Limits to Growth in the 1970s.
As recently as about 2010 though, I expected politics to disintegrate AFTER the environment began collapsing.
But the Nov 5, 2024 US elections ("11-5") proves I had that backwards.
The world entered a new political dark age that day, meaning the response of most humans to climate collapse impacts will be with willful ignorance, cruelty, and hate. I still had at least SOME hope until 11-5 that the majority of humans might respond with intelligence and love.
Thanks, Mike, for your sincere reply, with which I share your analysis/sentiment.
Great work Sarah. I fear you have been way too conservative in the global temp ranges. 2024 will see the first year 1.5 deg C above the 1750-90 baseline for every month of the year. Don't forget, that was the original baseline the 2 degrees threshold was set at decades ago. The average global temp then was 13.54 deg C. It is now 15.29 degC and has been around that mark or higher since last year. The sudden acceleration of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere is showing more irreversible tipping points have been crossed. The Arctic is now a source, not a sink. We don't have decades. We probably have one.
Is there scientific consensus on this timeline?
Incredibly interesting. I'll just go out and top myself now.
At least we can console ourselves that in this last decade available to us to do anything about this, exactly the wrong people and parties are in control throughout!