Collapse: A Timeline

What to expect decade-by-decade

Photo by Brock DuPont on Unsplash

Let's be real. We've had decades to alter our path towards implosion and we've instead pressed on the accelerator. At this rate of environmental destruction, we'll be lucky to see the RCP 8.5 scenario.

The biggest warning sign of what lies ahead is the increasing speed at which atmospheric CO2 is growing.

We've put our fate in the hands of profiteers, impotent governments and a complacent public. Nature is being raped and pillaged. We're fucked. But what does that mean?

I mapped out a likely scenario, based on a synthesis of a variety of estimates combined with a dose of interpretation. While I can't predict the future, if we continue business as usual we'll soon witness compounding destruction of our infrastructure, economy and agricultural systems. A reasonable estimate suggests cascading civilizational and social collapses by mid-century - just 25 years from now.

This isn't an exact science, but - barring a miracle - it's a good indication of what lies ahead. The purpose isn't to provide an exact prediction. Rather, it is to translate the abstract future into a tangible interpretation.

Below is a decade-by-decade look what may lie ahead.

Note that the temperature deviations above pre-industrial levels are based on IPCC rolling multi-year averages, which are slower to respond to year-by-year fluctuations. While calendar year 2024 may be 1.6 Celsius above baseline, using the multi-year methodology we haven't breached the 1.6 Celsius threshold. The rationale for using a multi-year average is to smooth out anomalous spikes and dips caused by various weather phenomenon. Whether or not you agree with the methodology, the estimates signal the general long-term trend.

2020–2030: The Final Decade of 'Normal' (+1.2–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels)

During this decade, global temperatures continue to rise steadily due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. The world edges closer to the 1.5°C threshold, with extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes becoming more frequent and severe. These changes disrupt agricultural systems, with heat stress on crops and soil erosion from flooding reducing yields, particularly in vulnerable regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Resource overconsumption, driven by growing populations and urbanization, exacerbates the strain on water sources and arable land, while unsustainable farming practices deplete soil quality. Meanwhile, social and economic inequality deepens as wealthier nations and corporations prioritize profit over resilience, leaving developing countries unable to invest in climate adaptation or disaster preparedness.

Impacts on Population and GDP:

• Population: Continues to grow, reaching approximately 8.5 billion (+5% from 2020), though growth slows in regions affected by climate-related disasters.

• GDP: Moderate global growth of +15% from 2020, driven by advanced economies, despite regional losses from climate damage and resource scarcity.

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2030–2040: Systems Under Severe Strain (+1.5–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels)

By the 2030s, the world undeniably surpasses the 1.5°C warming threshold, triggering increasingly devastating climate impacts. Heatwaves become more intense and prolonged, severely affecting global agriculture. Water scarcity worsens as glacial melt reduces freshwater availability in Asia and South America, and desertification spreads in regions like the Sahel.

Rising sea levels displace millions in coastal areas, particularly in South Asia and island nations. Mass migrations intensify as people flee uninhabitable regions, creating refugee crises that overwhelm host nations. Political instability grows as governments in resource-strapped regions fail to manage these crises, leading to civil unrest and the collapse of state institutions in some areas.

Impacts on Population and GDP:

• Population: Declines slightly to 8.3 billion (-2% from 2030) due to famine, disease, and migration-related mortality.

• GDP: Declines by 10% from 2030 levels (-5% from 2020) as economic systems in vulnerable nations falter under mounting pressures.

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2040–2050: Critical Failures (+1.8–2.2°C above pre-industrial levels)

The world begins to feel the effects of multiple climate tipping points. Arctic ice loss accelerates, reducing reflective surfaces and increasing heat absorption, while the Amazon rainforest starts to collapse, shifting from a carbon sink to a carbon emitter. These feedback loops intensify global warming.

Food systems face catastrophic disruptions as extreme weather, soil depletion, and pest outbreaks devastate crop yields. Water scarcity reaches critical levels, particularly in areas reliant on rivers fed by glacial melt. Resource conflicts erupt over access to water and arable land, with disputes in regions like the Nile Basin and the Arctic turning violent. Trade networks start to break down as economic instability and energy shortages ripple across the globe.

Impacts on Population and GDP:

• Population: Falls to 7.5 billion (-10% from 2040, -12% from 2020), driven by widespread famine, disease, and violent conflicts.

• GDP: Contracts by 30% from 2040 levels (-40% from 2020) due to infrastructure collapse and supply chain disruptions.

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2050–2060: Global Fragmentation (+2.2–2.5°C above pre-industrial levels)

By mid-century, vast swaths of the planet become uninhabitable due to extreme heat and water shortages. Entire regions in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are abandoned, forcing mass migrations that destabilize nations worldwide.

Governments in resource-strained regions collapse, leading to a fragmentation of society into localized communities. Global trade largely ceases as countries prioritize domestic survival, and resource wars escalate over dwindling supplies of food, water, and energy. Economic systems in previously stable nations falter, with manufacturing and services sectors crumbling under pressure. Urban centers depopulate as people migrate to rural areas for subsistence farming.

Impacts on Population and GDP:

• Population: Declines to 6 billion (-20% from 2050, -25% from 2020) as compounded crises take their toll on human survival.

• GDP: Shrinks by 60% from 2050 levels (-76% from 2020) due to the collapse of trade and infrastructure.

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2060–2070: Societal Collapse (+2.5–3.0°C above pre-industrial levels)

By the 2060s, global civilization largely collapses. Climate change renders more regions uninhabitable, with deadly heatwaves, crop failures, and water shortages becoming the norm.

Societies fragment into small, localized economies reliant on subsistence farming, as global trade and centralized governance are no longer viable. Starvation and disease become widespread, and birth rates plummet due to resource scarcity and unstable living conditions. The population shrinks dramatically, with humanity retreating into survival pockets in the few remaining habitable regions. Technological and scientific advancements regress as resources and knowledge networks disintegrate.

Impacts on Population and GDP:

• Population: Falls to 4 billion (-33% from 2060, -50% from 2020) due to starvation, disease, and violence.

• GDP: Reduced to 10% of 2020 levels, reflecting the near-total collapse of the global economy.

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Thanks,
Sarah