So, we have a group of people handling trillions of dollars, "printing" money out of thin air, using a made up figure called the GDP which ignores essential items like food and the future calculations and predictions of non linear chaotic events which are based upon the results of 9th grade linear mathematics. What could possibly go wrong? That's why they make the big bucks!
That “old” GDP loss estimate in figure 2 is alarmingly close to the upper 95th percentile line. And linear models are the simplest but not necessarily the most accurate since GDP loss could drop exponentially or like a decay curve.
So, we have a group of people handling trillions of dollars, "printing" money out of thin air, using a made up figure called the GDP which ignores essential items like food and the future calculations and predictions of non linear chaotic events which are based upon the results of 9th grade linear mathematics. What could possibly go wrong? That's why they make the big bucks!
That “old” GDP loss estimate in figure 2 is alarmingly close to the upper 95th percentile line. And linear models are the simplest but not necessarily the most accurate since GDP loss could drop exponentially or like a decay curve.
Good point. I think gdp is more likely to drop exponentially given the pro-cyclicality of panic and risk aversion.