you do not say a word about the buying up of farmland by billionaires and private equity. Or the catastrophe of climate change itself. There is no pretty way to look at how multinational corporations created demand for their products by promoting a massive increase in the world population by their "green revolution" . Now they want all those billions to just die off. The brutality of the killing planned will go far beyond anything in human history
The EU calculated rise in food and other consumer good prices will raise at least 10% around Christmass and the biggist price increasement in food prices next year with the next planting season and increase in packaging prices, furl costs this season etc calculated when most food of this season is processed by the foodindustry to sell later. So, it is silence before the storm now, and it gives us more time to prepare, with gardening and make a food pantry . Hopefully people will listen and prepare for the storm in 6 months. If you have still money, investing in solar panels and ( electric) bikes now seems a good idea
The 6-to-9 month buffer is doing double duty. It protects the consumer from the immediate shock, and it protects the government from the immediate political pressure to respond. By the time food prices force the crisis onto the front page, the intervention window has already closed. Fertiliser either reached the field during the planting window or it didnt. Yields were either achieved or they weren't. The checkout price in December is the receipt for a decision that was made or avoided in April.
Thats the structural trap embedded in every supply chain lag. The buffer that shields the consumer is the same buffer that removes the urgency to act. Governments get a 6-month grace period where the crisis is real but invisible to voters, and the rational political move during that period is to do nothing because there is no constituency demanding action on a price that hasn't risen yet. The crisis arrives pre-baked by the time anyone feels it.
As usual most people just take things for granted and that the food will be there as usual. Prepper or not, a wise person would do well to start stocking up within their means. Thanks for keeping us informed.
The crisis is already here in other observable ways. Yesterday, as my wife stood in a grocery store checkout, she watched a gentleman in a wheelchair, assisted by a companion, monitoring the cash register as his purchases were scanned. Not infrequently, his helper took an item back to the shelves because the total surpassed the man's ability to pay. At the end of the process of winnowing the order, the man paid entirely with cash. My wife watched with sadness as the man had to adjust his menu to fairly restricted funds. While we all have to budget what we buy at the grocery store, it was painfully obvious that this shopper was making those choices at the register, his selections constrained by rising prices and, apparently, reduced income.
The trope of a “perfect storm” quietly implies there is no such thing as a perfect shelter. Really?
We have shown ourselves fully capable of collectively and systematically destroying—or simply allowing the destruction of—our ability to sustain ourselves. Yet we insist we have no capacity to envision and design a safe, stable, sustainable, and, most importantly, shared world civilization.
Really?
If that is true, then bless us all. We will have enabled exactly what we fear we are powerless to prevent. Really?
Yes! Lets take the “bulldozer” ( the fractional-reserve money creation system) away! Its that or Mad Max. Sarah thank you for you conversation and feedback!
The recent manufacturers index is over 55 due to expected prices increases and materials shortages. The inventory we see now is a false sense of security.
Sarah, brilliant piece, exactly the analysis mainstream media isn’t doing. Reading this from India, what strikes me is how few people here realise how exposed we actually are. India imports 88% of its crude and our fertiliser sector runs on Gulf gas. Yet the Strait of Hormuz is being followed here purely as financial news — oil prices, maybe petrol at the pump. The deeper dependency on our food system simply isn’t part of the conversation yet. We’re just not connecting the dots.
you do not say a word about the buying up of farmland by billionaires and private equity. Or the catastrophe of climate change itself. There is no pretty way to look at how multinational corporations created demand for their products by promoting a massive increase in the world population by their "green revolution" . Now they want all those billions to just die off. The brutality of the killing planned will go far beyond anything in human history
For certain this will make what would otherwise have been catastrophic into an even worse situation.
(It blows my mind that Fallout is on TV, while IRL oligarchs have been setting the stage for a different kind of apocalypse.)
Danke für die klaren Worte, sehr lesenswert.
The EU calculated rise in food and other consumer good prices will raise at least 10% around Christmass and the biggist price increasement in food prices next year with the next planting season and increase in packaging prices, furl costs this season etc calculated when most food of this season is processed by the foodindustry to sell later. So, it is silence before the storm now, and it gives us more time to prepare, with gardening and make a food pantry . Hopefully people will listen and prepare for the storm in 6 months. If you have still money, investing in solar panels and ( electric) bikes now seems a good idea
The 6-to-9 month buffer is doing double duty. It protects the consumer from the immediate shock, and it protects the government from the immediate political pressure to respond. By the time food prices force the crisis onto the front page, the intervention window has already closed. Fertiliser either reached the field during the planting window or it didnt. Yields were either achieved or they weren't. The checkout price in December is the receipt for a decision that was made or avoided in April.
Thats the structural trap embedded in every supply chain lag. The buffer that shields the consumer is the same buffer that removes the urgency to act. Governments get a 6-month grace period where the crisis is real but invisible to voters, and the rational political move during that period is to do nothing because there is no constituency demanding action on a price that hasn't risen yet. The crisis arrives pre-baked by the time anyone feels it.
Good article, Sarah. Linking it today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
As usual most people just take things for granted and that the food will be there as usual. Prepper or not, a wise person would do well to start stocking up within their means. Thanks for keeping us informed.
The crisis is already here in other observable ways. Yesterday, as my wife stood in a grocery store checkout, she watched a gentleman in a wheelchair, assisted by a companion, monitoring the cash register as his purchases were scanned. Not infrequently, his helper took an item back to the shelves because the total surpassed the man's ability to pay. At the end of the process of winnowing the order, the man paid entirely with cash. My wife watched with sadness as the man had to adjust his menu to fairly restricted funds. While we all have to budget what we buy at the grocery store, it was painfully obvious that this shopper was making those choices at the register, his selections constrained by rising prices and, apparently, reduced income.
For sure.
Thanks, Sarah, although wasn't this inevitable and only the tip of the "overshoot" iceberg?
Great post, Sarah. Chock full of the difficult facts we will be forced to learn to live with. Knowledge is power, even if it portends doom and gloom.
The trope of a “perfect storm” quietly implies there is no such thing as a perfect shelter. Really?
We have shown ourselves fully capable of collectively and systematically destroying—or simply allowing the destruction of—our ability to sustain ourselves. Yet we insist we have no capacity to envision and design a safe, stable, sustainable, and, most importantly, shared world civilization.
Really?
If that is true, then bless us all. We will have enabled exactly what we fear we are powerless to prevent. Really?
I think many of my readers can envision a safe, stable, sustainable civilization. Problem is our views are bulldozed by those with wealth and power.
Yes! Lets take the “bulldozer” ( the fractional-reserve money creation system) away! Its that or Mad Max. Sarah thank you for you conversation and feedback!
The recent manufacturers index is over 55 due to expected prices increases and materials shortages. The inventory we see now is a false sense of security.
Sarah, brilliant piece, exactly the analysis mainstream media isn’t doing. Reading this from India, what strikes me is how few people here realise how exposed we actually are. India imports 88% of its crude and our fertiliser sector runs on Gulf gas. Yet the Strait of Hormuz is being followed here purely as financial news — oil prices, maybe petrol at the pump. The deeper dependency on our food system simply isn’t part of the conversation yet. We’re just not connecting the dots.