Mainstream Climate Models Underestimate Imminent Warming
The latest from James Hansen
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan, and Jasen Vest have released their latest report titled “Yes, 2026 is on Track to be the Hottest Year“.
Below, I summarize what you need to know:
1. Actual Climate Sensitivity is Much Higher Than Official IPCC Estimates
The authors state with greater than 99% certainty that actual climate sensitivity is 4-5C for doubled carbon dioxide (2x CO2), sharply contrasting with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) long-standing best estimate of 3C. New historical data from the last major ice age and satellite observations of Earth’s decreasing reflectivity (albedo) support this higher range.
2. A Massive “Double Whammy” of Hidden Warming is Already Locked In
Because actual climate sensitivity is higher than previously assumed, there is significantly more global warming already “in the pipeline” than public policies account for. This is compounded by the fact that past aerosol cooling was underestimated; as nations clean up air pollution and reduce atmospheric aerosols, a major cooling blanket is removed, accelerating the arrival of this latent heat.
3. Earth’s Energy Imbalance Has Doubled
The rate of global warming has drastically accelerated over the past 10 to 15 years because human-made cooling aerosols decreased. This reduction caused the Earth’s energy imbalance to double, reaching a massive 1.58W/square meter over the 15-month period ending in March 2026.
4. 2026 is Projected to Eclipse the 2024 Record Despite a Cooler Start
Global temperatures for the first few months of 2026 ran substantially cooler than the record-breaking year of 2024. However, the authors project that 2026 temperatures will surpass 2024 levels in midyear and ultimately eclipse the prior record to become the hottest year in modern history, driven by a powerful emerging El Niño.
2026 Super El Niño Threatens Global Crops
Time is running out to prepare for a climate shock of unprecedented scale. As 2026 unfolds, the Pacific Ocean is priming a catastrophic El Niño that threatens to cripple global food systems, trigger widespread economic instability, and shatter planetary temperature records.
5. Mainstream Climate Projections and Media Reporting are Fundamentally Flawed
The report accuses mainstream modeling communities and the media of propagating a flawed interpretation of climate change. The authors emphasize that mainstream scientists peg the odds of 2026 being the warmest year at only about 27%, an underestimation resulting from a failure to account for shifting aerosol dynamics and accelerated warming trends.
Read the full report:
Hansen’s linear fit models still underestimate the path we are on for one simple reason: the rate of warming is not a constant, it is accelerating. Richard Crim was someone who understood that. Things are getting worse, faster.
Here's a link to Hansen's paper as an alternate to the PDF. Thanks for the synopsis, Sarah.
https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/yes-2026-is-on-track-to-be-the-hottest