7 Key Takeaways: 2024 State of the Climate Report
"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster"
The 2024 State of the Climate Report was released October 8th. This is a must read for anyone who cares for the condition of our planet. The outlook is dire. Humanity is failing on numerous measures.
This report is authored by William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf , Jillian W. Gregg, Johan Rockström, Michael E. Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy M. Lenton, Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas M. Newsome, Chi Xu, Jens-Christian Svenning , Cássio Cardoso Pereira , Beverly E. Law and Thomas W. Crowther.
"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis."
Below I've summarized 7 key findings from the report:
Record-breaking Temperatures and Sea Surface Anomalies (Page 3) In 2023, both global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures significantly exceeded the 1991-2024 averages. These anomalies persisted well into 2024, highlighting the increasing intensity of climate change impacts. The report emphasizes, "Daily mean temperatures were at record levels for nearly half of 2023 and much of 2024." The consistent breaking of records is a stark indicator of the deteriorating climate, and the authors warn that, "On our current emissions trajectory, we may regularly surpass current temperature records in future years."
Escalating Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Page 5) Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. In 2023, global energy-related emissions rose by 2.1%, reaching more than 40 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent for the first time. This increase is primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion, with the top three emitting countries—China, the United States, and India—together accounting for over half of global emissions. The report also points out that aerosol pollutants, which have a cooling effect on the atmosphere, are in decline, potentially accelerating warming. The authors lament, "Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage."
Extreme Weather Events Increasing in Frequency (Pages 7-8) The report provides a grim account of the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from late 2023 through mid-2024. These include the record-breaking heatwave that swept across North Africa and the Sahel, causing potentially thousands of deaths, and widespread flooding in East Africa, affecting more than 700,000 people. In February 2024, Chile experienced severe wildfires that destroyed over 14,000 homes. The report links these events directly to climate change, stating that "climate change likely contributed to these fires by increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts and heatwaves." The cascading effects of these disasters not only devastate communities but also highlight the urgent need for adaptive climate policies.
Ocean Heat and Ice Melting (Page 10) Ocean conditions are worsening, with both ocean heat content and acidity at record levels. These extremes have led to significant impacts on marine life, including mass mortality events among marine species, such as coral reefs. Additionally, Greenland and Antarctica's ice masses, along with average glacier thickness, reached record lows, contributing to a rise in average global sea levels. The report attributes these changes to both global warming and a strong El Niño event in 2023 and early 2024. It warns that continued sea-level rise could displace "hundreds of millions of people over the course of the century," highlighting the long-term risks posed by melting ice and rising oceans.
The Human Cost of Climate Change (Page 12) The human impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly severe, as extreme weather events lead to greater loss of life and suffering. Heat-related deaths increased by 117% from 1999 to 2023 in the United States alone. The report states, "Heatwaves of this magnitude likely could not have occurred in the absence of climate change." The increase in extreme heat has also led to a rise in heat-related illnesses and has exacerbated healthcare burdens, especially for vulnerable populations. The authors emphasize that each additional 0.1°C of global warming places an estimated 100 million people at increased risk of health and livelihood challenges.
Deforestation and Tree Cover Loss (Page 14) The rate of global deforestation is accelerating, with tree cover loss increasing from 22.8 million hectares in 2022 to 28.3 million hectares in 2023. This spike was largely driven by record-breaking wildfires, which caused an unprecedented loss of 11.9 million hectares of forest cover. Such deforestation contributes to positive feedback loops—where the loss of forest carbon sequestration leads to additional warming, driving further losses in forest cover. However, there was a positive development in the Amazon, where deforestation rates declined from 1.16 million hectares in 2022 to 0.90 million hectares in 2023, thanks in part to the changing policies of Brazil's government.
Amplifying Feedback Loops and Tipping Points (Page 17) One of the most concerning findings of the report is the potential for amplifying feedback loops and climate tipping points. Feedback loops, such as permafrost thawing, are processes that, once initiated, may accelerate further warming in a self-perpetuating cycle. The report identifies at least 28 feedback loops that are contributing to climate change, including methane release from melting permafrost and shrinking ice cover. The authors argue, "Because these feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in adequately limiting future warming." Moreover, tipping points—such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet—could lead to catastrophic and irreversible changes in the Earth system if crossed.
Read the full report here.
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Thanks,
Sarah
The authors argue, "Because these feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in adequately limiting future warming."
I thought the main purpose of climate models were to take into account the unknown factors of feedback from changing climate. It's understandable that predicting how much methane will be released is impossible (for just one example) but if these factors are not even included it's safe to say that the models are worthless for predicting future climate with any accuracy.
Climate is a chaotic system. An underlying order made up of random unpredictable events. Humans have evolved during the underlying order we refer to as climate which has been reasonably stable throughout our evolution. When the random events are disrupted and the overall climate can be severely changed.
The authors of the paper did not adequately address the social economic consequences of climate change destruction. The destruction caused by Helene will require a massive rebuilding effort. Where the reconstruction could be going towards the construction of new housing it will instead be for replacement. Hence CO2 emissions will double. Hence instead of reducing co2 and resource use every natural disaster will have double the negative effects. And is it even wise to rebuild there? Relocating thousands will have significant negative impacts on the economy and lives as the industrial and economic base is destroyed.
The system that is being ignored is civilization itself which is also a chaotic system reliant on a stable climate and a healthy ecosystem- both of which are failing. While climate "catastrophe" is forecast for the end of the century in terms of temperature, civilization will be effected far sooner. Civilization is at or beyond the tipping point in terms of population. Overpopulation is what is driving climate change and is not being addressed. It's too inconvenient and unthinkable. Considering the government solutions to the homeless population what will be the solution for millions of people displaced from climate change? American policies towards Gaza and now the Mideast in general are a clear indication of what is in store for Americans.
Thanks for the essay. The Oxford piled higher and deeper crowd are beginning to wake up. A few more decades of studies and they're bound to arrive at a conclusion.
It's a good review of the paper. At 13 pages few will actually read all of it. Which is wild, because it's the "Decision Maker" Summary. Your article is probably the "sweet spot" for what the average person will read without MEGO.
The things that LEAP out at me are:
1. This is "mainstream" Climate Science speaking. The inclusion of Michael Mann among the authors tells you that this is the Climate Moderate Faction's position on the state of the Climate System.
2. This is confirmed when they predict +2.7°C by 2100. Because, as DIRE as that sounds. The Alarmists model in 2021 predicted +5.7°C for the same level of CO2. Using +2.7°C means they are using a LOW value for Climate Sensitivity (2XCO2).
3. If they are WRONG about the 2XCO2 value, then warming will be twice as fast and twice as much as this report indicates.
4. The Moderates, who still cannot explain the warming in 2023, give ONE sentence to James Hansen and his position that aerosol changes caused the warming. James Hansen is an Alarmist -btw.
That's what leapt out at me in this report.